England vs. Iran: Preview
Most people probably believe that England's World Cup opening against Iran will be rather simple.
The Three Lions breezed through qualifying for Qatar 2022 with the best goal difference in the group stage of European qualifiers, scoring 39 goals and allowing just three goals, reaching the semi-finals in 2018 before making it all the way to the final of last year's rearranged Euro 2020 competition.
Gareth Southgate's squad will be confident that they can start the game with three points, but on Monday, they face a potentially challenging challenge.
Iran also had a strong qualification run, winning eight out of ten games in the third round of Asian qualifying while giving up just four goals.
They are ranked 20th in the most recent FIFA rankings, ahead of teams like Serbia, Morocco, and Poland.
A change in head coach for Team Melli just two months before the World Cup—shortly after Carlos Queiroz had led Egypt to the Africa Cup of Nations final earlier this year—was far from ideal for their preparations. Dragan Skocic was unexpectedly fired and replaced by Queiroz in Qatar.
As the longest-running head coach, Queiroz will be in charge of Iran for the third straight World Cup after taking over for the second time.
Wednesday's friendly match between Iran and Tunisia took place behind closed doors, but Queiroz believed it helped his squad prepare for England. Iran lost 2-0.
Of course the outcome is poor, he added. We dislike losing and conceding goals, but there are some areas we need to improve on.
"We had the greatest scoring chances in the game before the penalty, but the most crucial thing is the conclusions we need to draw in order to get ready for England."
Iran, one of 20 teams who competed at both of the most recent World Cups in 2014 and 2018, had the fewest shots (47), fewest shots on target (10), and fewest goals (three) in the group stages of both tournaments.
With the game starting at 4 p.m. local time, England's Eric Dier is unconcerned about the high temperatures in Qatar despite the time of year.
At a news conference on Saturday, he remarked, "I don't know what sort of influence that will have. "I've never done that before, so it will be a first for me.
"Normally, this competition is held in the summer. It was hot in Russia [in 2018]. We're playing in the same circumstances as our opponents, so it's the same for everyone. Although I wasn't there, it was hot during the Euros in England, so I believe we're prepared for that.
Since they are the only European team to have advanced to the semifinals of the two most recent international competitions, England will be aiming to get off to a solid start at the Khalifa International Stadium.
England and Iran: Players to Watch
England: Harry Kane
The captain of England, who earned the golden boot at the most recent FIFA World Cup in 2018, where five of his six goals in Russia came in the group stage, has been crucial to his team's previous two victories in the World Cup and the European Championship.
In addition, Kane tied Memphis Depay for the most goals (12) in the European World Cup qualification, and his shot conversion percentage of 36.4% was the greatest of any player with at least six goals.
Iran: Mehdi Taremi
Given his 40 goals in 63 games for his country to date, it makes sense that Sardar Azmoun will be the player England should keep an eye on. However, due to his lack of playing time and goals at the club level—he has only scored once in 22 appearances for Bayer Leverkusen since joining in January. This could cost him his sharpness.
His international striking partner Taremi, on the other hand, scored 13 goals in 19 games this season for Porto, including five in the Champions League. The Iranian has scored 60 goals overall in 109 games throughout stints with Rio Ave and Porto in the Portuguese Primeira Liga since 2019–20, 16 more than any other player during that time span.
No Iranian player scored more goals during the third round of Asian World Cup qualification than Taremi, who only appeared six times (four goals, two assists).
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Prediction of England vs. Iran Match
Even though Iran is possibly stronger than most people think, England is still the clear favorite.
Our supercomputer's prediction model gives the Three Lions a 72.2% probability of winning the first game, while the draw is expected to occur 18.1% of the time.
If Iran pulls off the surprise, it would be a moment to remember, but Queiroz's team only has a 9.7% probability of winning.